
          Winning the South 
          By Johnson, KenKen Johnson 
          Vol. 11, No. 2, 1989, pp. 1, 3-4
          
          For Democrats, the Solid South is history. This, having been true
for the national party for some time now, is becoming the case for
Democrats at the state and local level as well. Yet, despite the
arguments that are being made with renewed vigor by many Southern
white officeholders and party leaders about the need for a change of
direction, close examination of the 1988 election results from one
thousand racially segregated voting precincts from seventeen major
Southern cities suggests that the Democrats can win in 1992.
          Democrats can actually win a majority of the Southern states in the
next presidential election with only a modest increase in Southern
white support if--and it's a big if--black and Hispanic registration
and turnout equals that of whites in 1992.
          That surprising conclusion emerges from a recent study by the
Southern Regional Council of the 1988 presidential returns and county
and statewide data. The evidence suggests that a coalition victory of
the Democratic Party in the South may be much closer than many
Democrats believe if the region can remove the barriers of race and
national origin from the political process. With equal levels of
registration and voting and continued strong minority support,
Democrats need only a 5 percent increase of white support--little more
than their 1988 gains--to win six Southern states, a majority of the
region's votes, and the next Electoral College.
          In such a scenario, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South
Carolina and Texas would move to the Democratic column.
          In the eleven states of the Old South, black and Hispanic
registration and voter turnout have generally been between 10 and 12
percent below white levels in 

recent years. No exact data is available
because registration and turnout information is notoriously unreliable
in some Southern states and is not broken down by race in
others. Moreover, surveys such as the one taken every two years by the
Census Bureau probably overstate black registration and voting.
          How can such predictions be made in the face of recent arguments by
many white Southern Democrats that the party must adapt itself to the
conservative nature of white voters if it ever wants to win the
presidency again?
          The answer is that Democrats in the South actually did better in
1988 in gaining new white voters than they did in turning out black
voters. Our study of one thousand Southern voting precincts shows that
Democrats increased their white vote by almost 4 percent over 1984,
but lost more than 20 percent of black voters.
          The analysis shows that Democratic gains in predominantly white
precincts were canceled out by a sharp decline in votes since 1984 in
the majority black precincts. In fact, in all but eight of 458
precincts with 90 percent or more black voters, Michael Dukakis got
fewer black votes in 1988 than Walter Mondale did in 1984.
          The point is tricky, so listen carefully.
          Data from the SRC study agrees with the exit polls that there was
no significant decline in the percentage of blacks voting Democratic
from 1984 to 1988. In fact, a precinct-by-precinct analysis shows an
amazing sameness in the percentages of Democratic support over the
four years. In Little Rock, for instance, the percentage of Democratic
votes cast in black precincts was 86.96 percent in 1988, compared to
85.77 percent in 1984. In Birmingham, nineteen majority black
precincts showed a level of Democratic support of 96.85 percent in
1988 and 96.17 percent in 1984. See Table 1.
          
            
              Table 1: Percent of Democratic Voting in Black Precincts in
Presidential Elections 
              
                City
                Percent Democratic
                Voting
              
              
                
                1984
                1988
              
              
                Birmingham
                96.17
                96.85
              
              
                Huntsville 
                93.66 
                92.12
              
              
                Montgomery 
                98.10 
                96.71
              
              
                Little Rock 
                85.77 
                86.96
              
              
                Miami 
                95.24 
                94.35
              
              
                Atlanta 
                95.10 
                94.65
              
              
                Augusta 
                97.11 
                95.99
              
              
                New Orleans 
                94.59 
                95.82
              
              
                Jackson 
                95.38 
                96.80
              
              
                Charlotte 
                95.70 
                95.34
              
              
                Greensboro 
                96.29 
                96.49
              
              
                Columbia 
                86.52 
                97.51
              
              
                Chattanooga 
                83.55 
                83.90
              
              
                Memphis 
                96.47 
                96.40
              
              
                Houston 
                96.90 
                97.19
              
              
                Norfolk 
                90.88 
                89.45
              
              
                17 City Total 
                95.10 
                95.30
              
            
          
          
            Black Registration Fell
          
          What changed? The answer is that fewer blacks registered and fewer
blacks went to the polls.
          In eleven of seventeen major cities surveyed, black registration
has declined since 1984, and in sixteen of seventeen cities, black
voter turnout also fell sharply. At the same time, white registration
in some Southern cities increased, with a smaller drop--about 5
percent--than blacks in actual voting.
          Democratic gains among white urban voters in 1988 in the South were
nullified, by and large, by the party's failure to increase the actual
number of black votes. In Houston, for example, an increase of about
5,000 Democratic votes in predominantly white precincts was allowed up by a loss of about 24,000 black votes.
          Although the Democrats carried no Southern state, their ticket made
actual gains among white voters in Southern cities between 1984 and
1988. In fifteen of the seventeen surveyed cities, the percentage of
white votes for Dukakis was higher than the percentage for Mondale. In
Miami, the Democratic vote in predominantly white precincts increased
from 21.65 percent in 1984 to more than 27 percent in 1988. In New
Orleans, the increase was from 19 percent to 25.45 percent. Even in
Houston, George Bush's hometown, the Democrats increased their
percentages of white voters from 22 percent in 1984 to 28 percent in
1988, and in all 95 white precincts, Dukakis got a larger percentage
than did Mondale. In Greensboro, N.C., all fourteen white precincts
enlarged their Democratic support and three of the white precincts
were carried by Dukakis.
          
            Suburban Registration Gains
          
          However, countywide data also reveals that registration in
predominantly white suburban counties of the South--where Republicans
show strength--increased at a much faster rate since 1984 than the
rates in urban and rural counties--where Democrats do well. These
trends indicate that suburban counties which vote heavily Republican
will become the most substantial voting influence in statewide
elections in the South in the near future because their registration
rates are increasing even faster than their population, in comparison
with urban and rural areas.
          Steve Suitts, the executive director of the SRC, suggests that
"Republicans appear to understand the politics of Southern numbers
better nowadays than do Democrats. Not only have the Republicans
sponsored more aggressive registration efforts in areas of their
voting strength, but they seem to understand the critical importance
of minority voting in the South's future presidential
elections."
          South Carolinian Lee Atwater, the new Republican National Chairman,
has said that his first priority is to win blacks to the GOP.
          "Our analysis suggests that this interest in black votes is
probably not the result of a political party's soul-searching decision
to seek a kinder, gentler, and more integrated constituency as much as
it is a realistic political strategy to win future presidential
elections in the South," said Suitts.
          The SRC analysis finds that if Republicans increase their minority
support in the South by 6 percent, Democrats would have to increase
their Southern white support by 11 percent--at current levels of
minority voter participation--to win most of the Southern
states. Obviously, such gains 

by Democrats in the South seem unrealistic.
          New Democratic National Chairman Ron Brown understands these
issues, because he was chairman of the party's task force on voting
rights and voter participation in 1987. The task force report called
for substantial improvements in voter participation among minority
groups. However, Brown has been so far a lightning rod for white
Southern Democrats who claim that he is a symbol of the reasons why
white Democrats are defecting to the GOP.
          Democrats must take a hard look at the bushwhacking they got on
Super Tuesday. The nation's only regional primary did not prompt
especially high levels of participation by Southern voters. Instead,
it allowed "the illusion of a mandate for its candidates, while
whites who stayed home on March 8 were far more willing to turn out on
November 8," said Suitts.
          In some Southern cities, white voting in the general election was
three times larger than on Super Tuesday. In thirteen of seventeen
cities the turnout in white precincts in November was more than double
the turnout on Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, in only one city did the
black turnout increase by 100 percent or more. "Quite clearly,"
says Suitts, "Super Tuesday did not coalesce white voters for any
candidate in the Democratic Party."
          
            Black Votes Can't Be Taken for Granted
          
          It seems just as clear that Democrats cannot take black votes for
granted; even if blacks continue to lean toward Democratic policies,
the Democratic Party cannot assume an actual increase in support. As
in the past, Democrats must address the issues of registration and
turnout of their most loyal voters if they are to depend on them, in
part, for victory at the polls.
          At a time when the Republican Party has made black support a
priority, the party of George Bush must realize that it begins that
effort with more of a disadvantage than did Ronald Reagan, whose
unpopularity among blacks now works against Bush.
          The Republican voting strength in the South has been established
solidly in suburban areas, and voter registration in the South has
accelerated over the past four years. In fact, at current rates of
registration growth, the suburban influence in Southern states will
only increase.
          The Democratic Party's future in the South in presidential politics
hangs on urban and rural areas, on the party's ability to increase
minority political participation to a level equal to that of white
voters, and on attracting a small percentage of additional whites.
          It is a future which the party has not yet fully recognized despite
current Republican efforts to foil such a strategy before it takes
root. It is a future that is entirely possible for the Democrats in
1992, though their past performance suggests they will have great
difficulty in realizing it.
          
            The complete report, "Winning the South in 1992: A
New Analysis of the 1988 Presidential Election," with all tables,
charts and notes, is available for $35 from the Southern Regional
Council, 60 Walton St., NW, Atlanta, GA 30303. (404) 522-8764. The
report is by SRC staff members Ken Johnson, Steve Suitts, Betty
McKibben, and Dorothy Dix.
          
          
            Ken Johnson is program director of the Southern Regional
Council and the co-author of "Winning the South in 1992: A New
Analysis of the 1988 Presidential Election." His article is adapted
from that report.
          
        