
          Delta Politics and the Almost Possible
          By Barber, RimsRims Barber
          Vol. 5, No. 1, 1983, pp. 4-7
          
          During the recent redistricting process, black leaders felt that it
would be impossible for a black candidate to 

win Mississippi's Second
Congressional District as it ultimately came to be drawn. The narrow
black population majority makes victory a very long shot for even the
exceptional campaign conducted with careful consideration of racial
relationships. Yet when Delta Congressman David Bowen chose not to
seek re-election in the newly drawn district, black state
representative Robert Clark ran and almost won.
          Robert Clark was an ideal candidate for the campaign. In 1967 he
became the first black elected to the Mississippi legislature since
Reconstruction. He has served with distinction as Chairman of the
House Education Committee. Clark has name recognition. He brought to
the campaign political experience that had earned trust, solid
relations with education and labor organizations and a claim on the
white Democratic leadership that few could match. The closeness of the
race (twelve hundred votes out of 145,000) was in large part
attributable to the qualities of the candidate himself.
          The District is 53.4% black in overall population. Black voting age
population is forty-eight percent. Estimates of registered voters show
black strength at forty-four percent. This means that it will take a
solid black vote, at or near record proportions, and a high white
crossover vote for a black Democratic candidate to win. In
Mississippi, black candidates under most circumstances may expect to
garner only two to three percent of the white vote. Clark received
twelve to thirteen percent of the white vote.
          Considering the closeness of the race, almost any shift of counties
during reapportionment would have made a significant difference. Had
the district not been gerrymandered to preserve the incumbency of
First District Congressman Jamie Whitten, Tallahatchie County could
have been traded for the two whitest counties (Choctaw and Webster)
and Clark could have won. He lost these two small counties by more
than the difference between himself and the winner, Republican Webb
Franklin. In similar fashion, Franklin won Warren County by more than
the final difference 

between the candidates. A split of Warren,
similar to that made for state legislative districts would have
shifted enough votes, as would a trade that put a small portion of
northern Hinds into the Second District.
          Victory in the spring, 1982, Democratic primary was crucial. Clark
won without a runoff although he had little more than one thousand
white votes. A runoff would have been disastrous: there would have
been little time to mobilize additional black voters, white support
that appeared in the general election would not have materialized for
the runoff, and further racial polarization within the party would
have occurred. There is a high probability that Clark would have lost
a runoff and that blacks would have bolted the Democratic party.
          The November general election attracted the second best black voter
turnout ever; the highest occurred in the 1980 Presidential
election. This time the vote was approximately ninety percent of that
record turnout, with between 65,000 and 67,000 black voters. It was
thirty percent higher than the turnout for the last off-year election,
in which Charles Evers was the drawing card for the black
electorate. Approximately forty-two percent of the voting age
population of blacks turned out while in 1980 it was forty-five
percent. Anything over sixty thousand is exceptional in this
geographical area.
          The black vote went overwhelmingly for Robert Clark by a margin of
ninety-four percent, slightly less than the ninety-six percent bloc
vote that Jimmy Carter received in 1980.
          There were however, some areas of black weakness. Five counties,
historically low in turnout, had less than forty percent of their
black voting age population to vote: Coahoma, Sunflower, Tunica,
Warren and Washington. Sunflower had the lowest at twenty-eight
percent. These five counties contain about forty 'percept of the black
voting age population in the District. Clearly, there is need for
voter registration work.
          There was a strong white turnout, about ten thousand more voters
than had been predicted. As a percentage of the white voting age
population, the turnout was about forty-eight percent (compared with
fifty-seven percent in the 1980 Presidential race). Approximately
81,000 whites voted (compared to 95,000 in 1980 and seventy thousand
in 1978). Doubtless, racial overtones helped the white turnout.
          Robert Clark received about twelve to thirteen percent of the white
vote. This varied from over twenty percent in counties like Attala and
Webster to five and six percent in Coahoma, Leflore and Tunica. In the
Hill counties, it appears that Clark received a better white vote in
rural areas than in the towns. In the Delta, Clark did better in towns
than in rural areas. The work of education and labor groups and the
Democratic party paid off with significant numbers of whites voting
for the candidate regardless of race. This was a brave first step for
several thousand white voters.
          The white vote in the District, however, has become increasingly
Republican over the past few years. This has been most pronounced when
there has been a high white turnout; almost all of the added turnout
has been Republican. Historically, the ratio of Democrats to
Republicans among white voters has been one to two.
          Over the last half dozen years, this has shifted to one Democrat
for every three Republican whites. And in 1982, half of this
diminished number of Democrats voted Republican.
          A close contest is painful to lose and prompts a lot o. second
guessing. But the challenge in the Second District of Mississippi is
to build the coalition that can bring victory and adequate
representation for the District's people. Certainly, some factors
would have made the difference in November's outcome:
Had the District been constituted with a slightly higher
percentage of black voters.Had the black voter turnout matched the record of two years
ago (and it might in 1984 if Reagan runs for reelection).Had the black bloc vote been just two percentage points more
consistent.Had the white vote not been stirred by the opponent and voted
in such strong numbers.Had a greater number of whites been able to leap the racial
barrier and vote their usual Democratic pattern.
          Other factors, not so demonstrable, could also have made a
difference: had there been a stronger Democratic party structure
across the District; had the coalition across racial lines been built
more solidly; had there been less fragmentation in the campaign;
clearer lines of communication, less conflict over strategies; had
there been more clear Democratic programmatic alternatives
consistently put before the voter; had more effort been targeted at
the weak black turnout areas.
          The fact is that the election was so close that almost any
favorable change in reapportionment, registration turnout or
Democratic party loyalty could have altered. the results. Of
particular importance, however, is a strengthened and deepened
partnership with blacks and whites in the campaign. There are
questions to answer about campaign strategies: How can white and black
staff be better coordinated so that both races feel a participation
and ownership in the cause? Can campaign appeals be made to one racial
community without agitating the other--would a traditional black rally
to increase voter turnout scare off potential white voters? How should
time be budgeted to produce the best results--how much time ought to
be spent on the ten to fifteen percent of the white vote that a black
candidate might get?
          Across the lines of race there is, at present, a growing sense of
interdependence in Mississippi's Second District. Both blacks and
whites are understanding that the kind of education provided their
children makes a difference to everybody; that health care, from
Medicare to the building of hospitals, makes a difference to
everybody; that economic development and the survival of farming make
a difference to everybody.
          Out of Holmes County in the Second District in 1982 came both the
Eddie Garthan trial and congressional candidate Robert
Clark. Carthan's case stood for recent black attempts to gain local
political power in the face of the long history of white supremacy
(see "Black Political Participation and the Challenge of
Conservatism," in Southern Changes, August/September
1982). Clark's. candidacy gave hope for a new future of inter-racial

politics. For a while, past and future came together in Holmes
County. In a room of the county courthouse, the Carthan case was
suspended one day so the election could be conducted. As things turned
out, Carthan was acquitted and Robert Clark lost by one percent of the
total vote. Clark says he is "inclined to try again."
          
            Rims Barber is project director for the Childrens'
Defense Fund in Mississippi. He is a member of the Southern Regional
Council and has been active in civil rights issue in Mississippi for
eighteen years.
          
        