
          Election Results '80
          By Suitts, SteveSteve Suitts
          Vol. 3, No. 2, 1981, pp. 6-9
          
          
            The Rise of Southern Suburban Politics
          
          Ronald Reagan's victory in 10 Southern_states, leaving the President only his native state, showed in fact a divided south—with Black voters overwhelmingly supporting Carter and an enormous number of Whites voting for Reagan.
          Although their candidate lost, Southern Blacks' clear choice was Jimmy Carter. In 78 targeted predominantly Black precincts in nine southern states (excluding Arkansas and Texas) Carter received more than 86 percent of the vote. Both urban and rural Black support for the Democratic presidential ticket was strong throughout the region. In fact, more than two out of three of all the Black boxes surveyed showed Carter with better than 90 percent of the vote.
          On this basis of precincts' patterns, nine out of 10 Black southern voters cast their ballot for Carter. This degree of support exceeded national projections of 80 percent Black support for Carter.
          Selected county returns confirm the depth and breadth of Carter's
support among Southern Blacks. Of five Deep Southern_states surveyed
(North_Carolina, South_Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia)
Carter lost only three majority Black populated counties among the
more than 70—and those three were all in Mississippi. Within
the same states, only nine of more than 130 counties with at least 40 percent Black population failed to give a majority of their votes to Carter.
          The overall White voting patterns show the opposite trend: Southern Whites voted in large numbers to defeat Carter. In the 23 predominantly White—largely urban precincts in nine states surveyed in the South, election returns show Reagan with almost 70 percent of the vote. In fact, Carter failed to carry a single box within the targeted precincts.
          Southern White voters were not for Reagan as uniformly as Blacks
were for Carter. The Democratic presidential ticket carried, for
example, 20 of the 50 mostly rural counties in North_Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi which have more than 90
percent White population.
          
          
            Final Count: Black/White Choices for 
President
          
          In November, Jimmy Carter lost the South in the suburbs. Unlike 1976, the 1980 Presidential election shows Carter's failures and Reagan's strengths in the Southern metropolitan areas, especially outside the central city.
          This Democratic slippage in the South's presidential politics is nothing brand new. As far back as 1968, when George_Wallace campaigned as a third party candidate, the Democratic party's candidate has been unable to deliver a majority vote in the South nor more than one Southern state's majority except in 1976 (Chart 1).
          In most Southern_states Reagan carried the balance of the suburban counties. In Alabama, Mobile and suburban Baldwin counties voted Republican as did the three other expanding suburban areas—Dothan (Houston and Dale counties), Birmingham (Tuscaloosa, Shelby, Jefferson, St. Clair, Blount, and Walker counties) and Montgomery (Montgomery, Autauga, and Elmore counties).
          A close analysis of Louisiana, South_Carolina, and Texas illustrate how Reagan won (Chart 2). In a breakdown of the voting returns by counties in the metropolitan areas (as defined by the 1970 U.S. Census Bureau) of these states, the voters in all suburban counties except one, gave Reagan a majority. Only in the metro counties where a central city is located did Reagan fail to pick up overall voter approval.
          In the New_Orleans area, for example, the three suburban parishes surrounding the city delivered more than 60 percent of the vote for Reagan while only 40 percent of the New_Orleans' parish voted for him. In South_Carolina, the central city vote did not even reduce markedly Reagan's strength. All metro counties supported the Republican president.
          In Texas the only suburban county to vote for Carter was San Patricio outside of Corpus Christi. Because it is small, rural and has a significant Hispanic population, San Patricio is hardly a typical suburban county and, hence does not really defy the pattern of suburban support for Reagan.
          Republican strength in these counties made the difference often in the final state returns (Chart 3). The ten metro parishes in Louisiana gave the new president more than half his total state's support. The seven South_Carolina counties—among the state's forty-six—delivered almost half the Republican president's votes and in Texas the metropolitan counties' Reagan votes constituted three-fourths of the state's total.
          The Southern pattern of Reagan's voting strength is
convincing. Although the margins of victory for the Republican party
in each Southern state were not overwhelming, Republicans have
captured the support of those Southerners living outside of central
cities and in suburban areas—where the South's population is steadily
growing. It is what professionals in the business of vote getting call
"a growth pattern" and the basis for the Republican hopes for 1984 in
the South.
          More than two out of three of all the Black boxes
surveyed showed Carter with better that 90 percent of the vote.
          ELECTION RESULTS'80
          
          
            Chart 1 Presidential Elections in the South,
1968-1980State Choices in 11 Southern States
            
              R-Republican
              
              
              
              
            
            
              I-Independent
              
              
              
              
            
            
              D-Democrat
              
              
              
              
            
            
              State
              1968
              1972
              1976
              1980
            
            
              Alabama
              Wallace(I)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Arkansas
              Wallace(I)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Florida
              Nixon (R)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Georgia
              Wallace(I)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Carter (D)
            
            
              Louisiana
              Wallace(I)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Mississippi
              Wallace(I)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              North_Carolina
              Nixon (R)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              South_Carolina
              Nixon (R)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Tennessee
              Nixon (R)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Texas
              Humphrey (D)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
            
              Virginia
              Nixon (R)
              Nixon (R)
              Carter (D)
              Reagan (R)
            
          
          
            Chart 3 Reagan Votes in Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (SMSA)As Percentage of Reagan's Total States Vote
            
              State
              % of Reagan's Total Vote
            
            
              Louisiana SMSA's
              53.7%
            
            
              South_Carolina SMSA's
              47.7%
            
            
              Texas
              75.5%
            
          
          
            Chart 2Reagan Votes in Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas of 3 Southern States Urban and Suburban Voting
Patterns in 1980 Election
            
              
              Louisiana
              
            
            
              SMSA/Counties
              % of Total Votes for Reagan
              No. of Reagan Voters
            
            
              Baton Rouge
              
              
            
            
              *East Baton Rouge
              52.9%
              60,032
            
            
              Lafayette
              
              
            
            
              Lafayette
              58.7%
              30,812
            
            
              Lake Charles
              
              
            
            
              *Calcasieu
              42.5%
              27,360
            
            
              Monroe
              
              
            
            
              *Quachita
              63.5%
              29,701
            
            
              New_Orleans
              
              
            
            
              Jefferson
              64.2%
              99,915
            
            
              *Orleans
              39.8%
              73,712
            
            
              St. Bernard
              61.3%
              19,410
            
            
              St. Tammany
              64.0%
              27,214
            
            
              Shreveport
              
              
            
            
              *Bossier
              62.8%
              16,515
            
            
              Caddo
              55.7%
              43,085
            
            
              TOTAL FOR SMSA's
              53.7%
              427,760
            
            
              
              South_Carolina
              
            
            
              Charleston
              
              
            
            
              Berkeley
              55.2%
              12,510
            
            
              *Charleston
              61.1%
              60,894
            
            
              Columbia
              
              
            
            
              Aiken
              57.7%
              18,528
            
            
              Lexington
              68.4%
              28,271
            
            
              *Richland
              50.5%
              36,351
            
            
              Greenville
              
              
            
            
              *Greenville
              57.8%
              46,198
            
            
              *Pickens
              53.8.%
              9,517
            
            
              TOTAL FOR SMSA's
              58.1%
              212,269
            
            
              
              Texas
              
            
            
              Abelene
              
              
            
            
              *Jones
              47.2%
              2,777
            
            
              Taylor
              62.0%
              22,943
            
            
              Amarillo
              
              
            
            
              *Potter
              60.9%
              16,327
            
            
              Randall
              73.7%
              23,136
            
            
              Austin
              
              
            
            
              *Travis
              49.4%
              73,151
            
            
              Beaumont
              
              
            
            
              *Jefferson
              43.4%
              36,763
            
            
              Liberty
              51.3%
              7,470
            
            
              Brownsville-Harlingten-San Benito
              
              
            
            
              *Cameron
              47.6%
              22,041
            
            
              Bryan-College Station
              
              
            
            
              *Brazos
              60.3%
              17,798
            
            
              Corpus Christi
              
              
            
            
              *Nueces
              45.6%
              37,276
            
            
              San Patricio
              46.6%
              7,662
            
            
              Dallas-Fort Worth
              
              
            
            
              Collin
              67.9%
              36,559
            
            
              *Dallas
              65.8%
              359,518
            
            
              Denton
              59.9%
              29,908
            
            
              Ellis
              51.3
              10,050
            
            
              Grayson
              53.7%
              16,811
            
            
              Johnson
              51.7%
              11,411
            
            
              *Kaufman
              46.8%
              5,081
            
            
              Rockwall
              65.3%
              4,036
            
            
              *Tarrant
              56.9%
              173,466
            
            
              El Paso
              
              
            
            
              *El Paso
              53.5%
              53,276
            
            
              Houston
              
              
            
            
              Brazoria
              58.1%
              27,614
            
            
              Chambers
              54.1%
              3,140
            
            
              Fort Bend
              65.9%
              24,914
            
            
              *Harris
              58.0%
              416,965
            
            
              Montgomery
              65.6%
              26,237
            
            
              Laredo
              
              
            
            
              *Webb
              30.8
              5,421
            
            
              Lubbock
              
              
            
            
              *Lubbock
              68.8%
              46,711
            
            
              McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg
              
              
            
            
              *Hidalgo
              41.8%
              25,499
            
            
              Midland
              
              
            
            
              Ector
              72.4%
              25,846
            
            
              *Midland
              76.6%
              25,027
            
            
              San Angelo
              
              
            
            
              Tom Green
              60.1%
              15,840
            
            
              San Antonio
              
              
            
            
              *Bexar
              49.9%
              148,126
            
            
              Guadalupe
              64.2%
              9,901
            
            
              Texarkana
              
              
            
            
              *Bowie
              54.8%
              7,804
            
            
              Waco
              
              
            
            
              *McLennan
              53.1%
              30,026
            
            
              Wichita Falls
              
              
            
            
              Archer
              54.8%
              7,804
            
            
              *Wichita
              55.0%
              22,884
            
            
              TOTAL FOR SMSA's
              57.3%
              1,837,357
            
            
              * Central City Counties
              
              
            
          
        
